Experts see clear signs of a possible Bitcoin rally above 60%

The latest metrics allow experts to see a rebound of up to 60% after spending 14 days below $45,000. A similar situation occurred in September 2021.

If the current moment has options to mimic that of the end of September of last year, traders are studying the basis of Bitcoin, the premium of futures contracts.

After measure the expense gap between futures and the traditional spot market, a trader can calculate the optimism of the market. If there is strong optimism, the base annualized premium on futures contracts is 15% or higher.

taking a look at last year’s situation, the base rate ranged between 9 and 13% however, before the spike at the end of September, the rate was at 6.5%. Current conditions suggest a similar situation.

The biggest changes in trend are the least expected and have happened when very specific situations have arisen.

The current 3-month Bitcoin futures premium stands at 6.5% and the indicator recently ranged between 9% and 11%. As we see very similar to the situation of 4 months ago.

Another indicator to consider is analyze the options market. The 25% delta bias compares equivalent call and put options. That indicator will turn positive when the market is cautious as the options protective premium is higher than call options.

If the market is bullish, that 25% delta bias is negative.. Values ​​between -8/+8% are considered neutral.

Taking a look at the current 25% delta bias indicator, option traders are neutral.

Derivatives metrics hint a very similar situation to September, when Bitcoin reversed a 24-day downtrend and rallied 62% for the next three weeks. Several economic influencers have also highlighted other cryptocurrencies that they expect to see significant growth in 2022.

If one thing is clear, it is volatility of this cryptocurrency market much further than the traditional stock market and is affected by many more external elements than this.